Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?
Probability
88¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+12.5pp
24h Vol
$184.11
Liquidity
$14.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 88¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.3h
- 15:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 88¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 88¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 87¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 88¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 88¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 88¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 88¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 88¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 75¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 75¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 75¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 75¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 75¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 75¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 76¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 76¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.3pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 100¢+0.6pp
Will Trump meet with Maria Corina Machado in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 11¢-1.9pp
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 23¢-0.5pp
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
Politics · Vol $76.26
- 100¢+1.6pp
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 94¢-0.3pp
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
Politics · Vol $848.88
- 76¢-0.5pp
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?
Politics · Vol $27.92
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 69¢+2.9pp
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 3¢-1.2pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $646.5K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $601.8K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $494.4K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $370.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $342.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $329.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).