Will Trump name "Leavitt" in April?
Probability
66¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+10.5pp
24h Vol
$102.11
Liquidity
$61.19
Probability (last 7 days)
+49.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 66¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.4h
- 12:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 65¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 61¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 50¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 51¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 35¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 35¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 35¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 55¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 54¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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