Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
Probability
37¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$428.07
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 58.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5976.2h
- 23:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: +29.5pp at 2d ago (to 65¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 23:45 · -27.5pp → 37¢
- 22:00 · -4.0pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +28.5pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · +29.5pp → 65¢
- 3d ago · +29.0pp → 65¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 18¢+1.0pp
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-0.7pp
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 56¢+7.0pp
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 13¢+4.0pp
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 16¢+1.0pp
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 14¢0.0pp
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 8¢-1.6pp
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 16¢-8.0pp
Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
Politics · Vol $17.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $658.9K
- 5¢+0.3pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $556.6K
- 3¢+0.5pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $510.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $341.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.2K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $316.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUS governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.