Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
Probability
15¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$17.00
Liquidity
$13.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 15¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.1h
- 14:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 25¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 29¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 25¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 22¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 26¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 27¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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