Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$344.30
Liquidity
$234.93
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 7h. UMA dispute is active.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $235 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 7 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: rollcall.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 7.3h
- 20:39SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 7h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 30¢0.0
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $538.31
- 40¢0.0
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $344.75
- 39¢0.0
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during meeting with French President?
Sports · Vol $352.55
- 3¢0.0
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $313.66
- 40¢0.0
Will Trump say "Nine Wars" or "Ninth War" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $115.39
- 41¢0.0
Will Trump say "Peace" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $164.87
- 2¢0.0
Will Trump say "President Xi" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $417.84
- 40¢0.0
Will Trump say "Soleimani" during meeting with French President?
Politics · Vol $364.44
- 0¢0.0
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Politics · Vol $3.9M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Politics · Vol $1.3M
- 1¢+0.5
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Politics · Vol $708.6K
- 1¢-0.1
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $457.1K
- 2¢+1.8
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Politics · Vol $448.6K
- 1¢0.0
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $346.2K
Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with the President of the French Republic on June 15, 2026 at 11:30AM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during remarks during the meeting with the President of the French Republic scheduled for June 15, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about the event titled "The President participates in a Bilateral Meeting with The President of the French Republic" on June 15, 2026, 11:30AM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President?"?
As of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:39:47 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 16, 2026 (2026-06-16T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$344.30 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $344.30. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $234.93. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.