PoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Trump talk to Ahmed al-Sharaa in April?

Probability

10¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$1.08

Liquidity

$11.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-38.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 101.0h

    LOW
  • 18:59Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -13.5pp at 2d ago (to 14¢).

Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:58 · -7.5pp → 9¢
  • 17:00 · -4.5pp → 12¢
  • 15:00 · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • 14:00 · -8.0pp → 11¢
  • 12:00 · -6.5pp → 12¢
  • 11:00 · -9.5pp → 11¢
  • 09:00 · -5.0pp → 14¢
  • 08:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
  • 06:00 · -6.5pp → 12¢
  • 05:00 · -5.5pp → 11¢
  • 02:00 · -7.0pp → 11¢
  • 00:00 · -10.0pp → 10¢
  • 23:00 · -9.0pp → 12¢
  • 21:00 · -8.0pp → 10¢
  • 20:00 · -8.0pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -9.0pp → 10¢
  • 1d ago · -9.0pp → 10¢
  • 1d ago · -9.0pp → 10¢
  • 1d ago · -7.0pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -5.5pp → 10¢
  • 1d ago · -5.5pp → 10¢
  • 1d ago · -13.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -9.5pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · -11.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -10.0pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 11¢
  • 2d ago · -9.5pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -13.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -13.5pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · -13.5pp → 14¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.