Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?
Probability
29¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$3.06
Liquidity
$248.68
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 436h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 46.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 436.3h
- 19:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 436h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 29¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.2pp at 2d ago (to 21¢).
Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -4.6pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -4.8pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -10.2pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.6pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +3.3pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +3.7pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- GDP releaseOfficial statisticsextracted · highons.gov.uk
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (46.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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