Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Kostyuk
Probability
54¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $4.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 159.3h
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Pegula” if Jessica Pegula wins the first set. It will resolve to “Kostyuk” if Marta Kostyuk wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- that completed setAmbiguous wordingwtatennis.com
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.