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SportsExpires May 2, 2026

Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs Li

Probability

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-87.0pp

24h Vol

$828.55

Liquidity

$8.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 00:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:12
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 87pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 162h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 161.8h

    LOW
  • 15:12Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 162h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Ann Li in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Swiatek” if Iga Swiatek wins the first set. It will resolve to “Li” if Ann Li wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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