Ornate-Cosset
0x0ad5bfe2cb15b4045df16bb0a87f5245f2076f41
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$540.40
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
719 shares @ 65.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$614.75
$147.39
- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
607 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$607.00
$0.61
- MIAMI MARLINS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
928 shares @ 49.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$464.00
$9.28
- YES
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
491 shares @ 25.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$73.65
$-49.10
- YES
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
21 shares @ 34.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$18.51
$11.52
- YES
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
29 shares @ 80.4¢·now 57.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.60
$-6.71
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 88.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$13.23
$0.91
- NO
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
9 shares @ 76.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.82
$-2.02
- NO
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.00
$1.17
- YES
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.13
$0.17
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$102.96Apr 27, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$431.52Apr 21, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$27.90Apr 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$413.25Apr 21, 03:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$361.92Apr 21, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?$544.50Apr 21, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$564.73Apr 21, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$540.83Apr 21, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill USD.AI launch a token by March 31?$1.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?$23.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?$194.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMXavier Musketeers vs. Clemson Tigers$307.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$316.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?$413.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-02-15?$493.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMMilitary action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?$737.00Apr 14, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?$1.7KApr 14, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$738.12Apr 13, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$5.58Apr 13, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$784.08Apr 13, 13:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $297.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 22:17 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 08:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.