Warlike-Noun-Haircut
0x0d2635b6adad4c69406a6674fe920b45137d50b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$238.23
Total PnL
$-202.05
Realised
$6.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
202 shares @ 58.7¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$90.03
$-28.69
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
87 shares @ 37.4¢·now 32.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.68
$-4.64
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
147 shares @ 36.1¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.21
$-28.84
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 13.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$18.75
$-1.75
- YES
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
86 shares @ 23.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.49
$-4.30
- YES
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?
25 shares @ 51.9¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.87
$-0.09
- YES
Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?
25 shares @ 16.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.12
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump announce Brett Giroir as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?
25 shares @ 13.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$-1.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$3.96May 14, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Brett Giroir as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$3.36May 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$4.27May 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$9.25May 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$6.03May 12, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$14.04May 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$0.78May 12, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$3.48May 12, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$9.63May 11, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIndian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$0.04May 11, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIndian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$5.57May 11, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIndian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$4.00May 11, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$3.97May 11, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians$4.00May 10, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians$3.96May 10, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$2.74May 9, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$3.08May 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$6.48May 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$5.14May 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$3.80May 9, 17:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $10.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 03:46 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 03:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".