Fuzzy-Expectancy
0x1575fb0abd00278b1708bef3871e8b8bb137b309
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$60.19
Total PnL
$-90.91
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
45 shares @ 44.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.14
$1.14
- YES
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?
99 shares @ 25.3¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$18.77
$-6.23
- YES
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
16 shares @ 31.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$3.47
$-1.53
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.81
$-2.19
- YES
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
11 shares @ 43.6¢·now 24.4¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.80
$-2.20
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
4 shares @ 83.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$-0.85
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.57
$-0.42
- YES
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1033 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.55
$-1.55
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$1.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8 shares @ 36.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.46
$-1.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$1.18May 12, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan win on 2026-06-22?$25.56May 4, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$41.67May 1, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?$0.03Apr 30, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?$0.42Apr 30, 00:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?$0.40Apr 30, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.19Apr 29, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$16.98Apr 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$15.00Apr 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$10.00Apr 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$3.41Apr 28, 15:08 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?$9.62Apr 28, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$0.00Apr 27, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$0.00Apr 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$6.76Apr 27, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$25.00Apr 26, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWeed rescheduled by December 31?$5.00Apr 26, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?$5.86Apr 26, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$5.00Apr 26, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$5.00Apr 26, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 19:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 12, 13:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".