0x2503bdb78d9a2af985f9423c10554f3e1b179be5
0x2503bdb78d9a2af985f9423c10554f3e1b179be5
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-958.59
Realised
$152.18
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
222 shares @ 36.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$151.94
$71.94
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
128 shares @ 79.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.37
$11.50
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
103 shares @ 73.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$94.01
$19.01
- YES
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
101 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$72.97
$-2.03
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
68 shares @ 74.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$67.16
$17.16
- YES
Haiti elections delayed again?
56 shares @ 70.9¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$55.49
$15.45
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
79 shares @ 63.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$54.37
$4.37
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
77 shares @ 39.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$54.23
$24.23
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
74 shares @ 68.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.10
$1.10
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
61 shares @ 66.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$40.92
$0.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$20.17Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$20.18Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 29?$10.13Jul 28, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$2.64Jul 28, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$20.26Jul 27, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$20.28Jul 27, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$10.13Jul 27, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: 2026$10.00Jul 27, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?$3.61Jul 27, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$15.51Jul 27, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?$10.09Jul 26, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?$10.15Jul 26, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$10.11Jul 26, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?$15.08Jul 26, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$15.18Jul 26, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$10.15Jul 25, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?$15.17Jul 25, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$15.38Jul 25, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$10.09Jul 25, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$10.00Jul 25, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $19.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 00:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.