0x254c83930d95e951125eab8d0e6078cace98fa68
0x254c83930d95e951125eab8d0e6078cace98fa68
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$48.82
Total PnL
$-7.64
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
92%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.00
$1.14
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.00
$1.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$5.95
$1.07
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$5.94
$0.95
- YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$5.81
$0.81
- PARIVISION
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$5.77
$0.87
- YES
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
2 shares @ 85.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$2.33
$0.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
1 shares @ 84.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$1.18
$0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?
1 shares @ 87.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$1.12
$0.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$0.00Jul 1, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?$0.00May 13, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?$0.00Apr 30, 23:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$0.00Apr 30, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00Apr 30, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$6.20Apr 28, 12:34 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$0.00Apr 25, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$0.00Apr 25, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$0.00Apr 25, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$0.00Apr 25, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$1.18Apr 25, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$1.09Apr 25, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMDeepSeek V4 released by May 15?$0.00Apr 24, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMDeepSeek V4 released by May 15?$0.00Apr 24, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMDeepSeek V4 released by May 15?$1.08Apr 24, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?$4.92Apr 23, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$5.00Apr 23, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMGwangju: Sho Shimabukuro vs Yuta Shimizu$0.00Apr 23, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?$4.93Apr 23, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$4.92Apr 23, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $5.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 03:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.