Grumpy-Beetle-Hovel
0x37daaec5e1def0fde61f5ff21673be1ff047d2db
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$305.74
Total PnL
$-34.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
41 shares @ 89.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.53
$-5.47
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
42 shares @ 59.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$23.75
$-1.25
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 90.4¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.58
$-0.42
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
21 shares @ 72.3¢·now 90.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$18.66
$3.66
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
22 shares @ 67.3¢·now 83.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.59
$3.59
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
19 shares @ 77.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$17.12
$2.08
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
17 shares @ 85.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.01
$1.01
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
17 shares @ 88.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.98
$0.98
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
19 shares @ 80.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.69
$0.69
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
16 shares @ 93.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.50
$0.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$3.15Jul 1, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$2.11Jul 1, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$1.05Jul 1, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$7.03Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$5.00Jul 1, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$10.04Jul 1, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$7.55Jul 1, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$2.53Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$11.98Jul 1, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31?$6.80Jul 1, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.4 released by July 31?$5.02Jul 1, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$10.00Jul 1, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.02Jul 1, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$15.21Jul 1, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$15.06Jul 1, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?$5.17Jul 1, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?$3.00Jul 1, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.60Jul 1, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 14:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $5.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 10:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.