Thunderous-Casserole
0x3860452ed57f70dfcac00b38e8fe23c1572b7877
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$285.31
Total PnL
$-14.07
Realised
$-3.06
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
82 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$76.01
$1.23
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
57 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$51.62
$0.29
- YES
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
26 shares @ 97.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$25.95
$0.34
- NO
Chirayu Rana divorced?
21 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.19
$0.32
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
18 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.07
$-0.09
- NO
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
14 shares @ 92.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$13.15
$0.03
- NO
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
22 shares @ 63.3¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.72
$-1.90
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$7.43
$-1.43
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
6 shares @ 95.9¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.04
$0.12
- NO
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?
6 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.89
$0.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$12.612m ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.738m ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.843h ago
- TRADESELLChirayu Rana fired?$7.783h ago
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?$8.883h ago
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?$1.553h ago
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?$1.303h ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$3.013h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.274h ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$0.194h ago
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$3.174h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$7.594h ago
- TRADESELLGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$9.585h ago
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana divorced?$18.965h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.206h ago
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$1.436h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$9.606h ago
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$8.526h ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$0.256h ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$3.006h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 22h ago
- Last active
- 2m ago
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".