Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Probability
37¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-13.0pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$25.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 13.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 850.1h
- 13:55SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 13.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 37¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 38¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 37¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 37¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 34¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 51¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 51¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 51¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 53¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 47¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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