0x3ca81324968a3a21f1f810af5755116113480a93
0x3ca81324968a3a21f1f810af5755116113480a93
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$34.31
Total PnL
$-115.52
Realised
$11.18
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
10 shares @ 37.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.93
$6.24
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?
7 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$7.02
$3.02
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
5 shares @ 35.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.01
$3.23
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.17
$1.17
- YES
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
3 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.74
$0.74
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?
2 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.44
$0.44
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.05
$0.05
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.95
$-0.05
- MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$0.60Jul 20, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$0.96Jul 10, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.50Jun 28, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.26Jun 24, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$0.10Jun 24, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$1.27Jun 24, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$0.86Jun 24, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$1.27Jun 24, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$2.05Jun 22, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$1.28Jun 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$2.05Jun 22, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.50Jun 22, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$2.00Jun 22, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$3.43Jun 22, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$2.56Jun 22, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.94Jun 21, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$2.05Jun 20, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$0.66Jun 20, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$0.46Jun 19, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.71Jun 19, 19:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 19:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 16:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.