Aromatic-Invasion-Everybody
0x3d60a4dcf361d6eed01bfadd0c6cfc2ac8866df2
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$506.79
Total PnL
$-7.2K
Realised
$-213.36
Win rate
3%
182 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
84 shares @ 71.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$82.95
$22.95
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
77 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.8¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$68.93
$0.63
- YES
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
67 shares @ 89.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$66.23
$6.23
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
72 shares @ 83.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$64.70
$4.70
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
65 shares @ 92.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$56.81
$-3.19
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
92 shares @ 37.2¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$56.06
$21.87
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
60 shares @ 56.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.70
$5.10
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
238 shares @ 21.4¢·now 11.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$27.37
$-23.69
- YES
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
102 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$27.03
$-0.51
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
59 shares @ 63.9¢·now 30.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$18.02
$-19.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026?$30.00Aug 18, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$46.91Aug 18, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$26.66Aug 18, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on August 17?$30.30Aug 18, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$7.79Aug 17, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$2.13Aug 17, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$30.30Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$31.25Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$5.09Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$68.97Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$30.06Aug 17, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on August 17?$30.03Aug 17, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?$31.91Aug 16, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$39.20Aug 16, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 17?$30.19Aug 16, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?$30.09Aug 16, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTim Walz in jail by December 31?$30.06Aug 16, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLTim Walz in jail by December 31?$21.10Aug 16, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?$30.09Aug 16, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$30.01Aug 16, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 182 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
182 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $20.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 04:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 182 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.