Cute-Hydrocarbon
0x460a86ca9de35ad490bc9c5d4c92ca59466f9e42
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$0.03
Total PnL
$-124.40
Realised
$0.83
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
36 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.02
$-5.98
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?
20 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.01
$-0.31
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
833 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
595 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.04
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
325 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
306 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?
256 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?$0.48Jul 2, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.55Jul 2, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$0.70Jul 2, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$0.55Jul 2, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$1.05Jul 2, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$0.86Jul 2, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.65Jul 2, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?$1.28Jul 2, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?$2.12Jul 2, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.59Jul 2, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.03Jul 2, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.52Jul 2, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.64Jul 2, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$2.55Jul 2, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.80Jul 2, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$3.04Jul 2, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026?$3.46Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$4.75Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$5.26Jul 2, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.13Jul 2, 06:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 06:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.