Oily-Confusion
0x60df70fb6cb841742f99e71ffa054e68365730da
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.63
Total PnL
$-387.80
Realised
$8.91
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?
250 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.63
$-0.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026?
713 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- UNDER 4.5
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5
388 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 23?
338 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 24?
333 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 23?
333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 22?
333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will Luis Diaz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?
300 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
300 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on April 24?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$0.04May 5, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?$0.04May 5, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?$0.02May 5, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?$0.03May 5, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLLalit Modi to announce new MMA league by the end of 2026?$0.03May 5, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.05May 5, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?$0.05May 5, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$0.06May 5, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.06May 5, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.15May 5, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.10May 5, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?$0.11May 5, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$0.14May 5, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.17May 5, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran Play in the World Cup?$0.15May 5, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?$0.22May 5, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.27May 5, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CA-47 House seat?$0.31May 5, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?$0.11May 5, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?$0.35May 5, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 18:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 5, 18:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.