Careful-Buying
0x64a0bf426d355eb92887d01fdf386594eaf0866e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$892.98
Total PnL
$-740.63
Realised
$6.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1004 shares @ 58.5¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$210.82
$-376.40
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
1254 shares @ 17.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$169.32
$-48.68
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
250 shares @ 68.9¢·now 64.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$162.23
$-10.07
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
200 shares @ 54.5¢·now 48.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$96.10
$-13.00
- YES
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
709 shares @ 22.1¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.20
$-64.34
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
385 shares @ 26.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.39
$-9.62
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
2000 shares @ 6.7¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.00
$-99.00
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
221 shares @ 22.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.43
$-46.57
- YES
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$110.00Jul 26, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$38.50Jul 26, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$8.83Jul 26, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2.40Jul 26, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2.40Jul 26, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.11Jul 25, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$4.39Jul 25, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$5.87Jul 25, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$51.45Jul 25, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close its airspace by June 10?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMIran coup attempt by June 30?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMMasoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$0.00Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$0.11Jul 25, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$3.43Jul 25, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$142.86Jul 25, 20:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $39.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 09:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 06:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.