Subtle-Savannah
0x7d9ef2bd7907f12dce1027bc8234a48ca7420e4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$17.48
Total PnL
$-25.61
Realised
$2.28
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
3 shares @ 82.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.84
$0.34
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
3 shares @ 34.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.78
$1.81
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$2.46
$0.46
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.20
$0.20
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$-0.02
- NO
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.37
$0.37
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.73
$-0.27
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
19 shares @ 10.7¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-1.28
- YES
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
4 shares @ 27.7¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.49
$-0.51
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?$0.00Apr 19, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 17, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 17, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$1.22Apr 17, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$1.00Apr 16, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?$1.00Apr 16, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$1.00Apr 16, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$1.09Apr 16, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$1.14Apr 16, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$1.00Apr 15, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$1.00Apr 15, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1.32Apr 12, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.16Apr 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$1.25Apr 12, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$1.00Apr 11, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.00Apr 11, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 11, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Apr 11, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$2.33Apr 11, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?$2.50Apr 8, 08:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 19, 08:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.