Sparkling-Normal
0x80e724c1ce45057ca25d983b6be8cbf03555ee81
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$32.12
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-604.66
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
33 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$32.12
$2.24
- YES
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%?
703 shares @ 82.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-582.62
- YES
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
125 shares @ 40.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
48 shares @ 83.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
43 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
38 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$53.61Jul 5, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?$34.64Jun 16, 16:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$36.28Jun 16, 16:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$38.46Jun 16, 16:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$136.80Jun 16, 16:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$188.10Jun 16, 16:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?$36.59May 11, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$46.15May 11, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$53.33May 11, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?$30.36May 8, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$4.72May 8, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?$30.22May 8, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$40.40May 4, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$40.26May 4, 06:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$3.36Apr 30, 09:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 21, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$58.26Apr 21, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$30.00Apr 21, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?$30.00Apr 21, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$30.00Apr 21, 08:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $30.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 16:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 15:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.