Bumpy-Pronunciation
0x8b5a2a371de832fc1750c1e1e97fa5496c30b95d
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$457.89
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1898 shares @ 10.9¢·now 24.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$465.85
$258.86
- YES
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
73927 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$332.67
$-451.77
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
570 shares @ 40.4¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$179.51
$-50.49
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
695 shares @ 30.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$177.27
$-33.73
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
328 shares @ 63.0¢·now 48.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$158.11
$-48.89
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
192 shares @ 63.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$125.70
$3.41
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
251 shares @ 15.9¢·now 30.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$77.72
$37.72
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
210 shares @ 33.4¢·now 31.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$66.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
220 shares @ 6.8¢·now 24.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$54.67
$39.67
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
718 shares @ 21.5¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.23
$-103.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$1.00Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$5.00Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$10.00Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$15.00Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.39Jul 25, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$41.69Jul 23, 23:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: 2026$153.00Jul 20, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?$121.19Jul 20, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$143.11Jul 19, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?$36.60Jul 19, 11:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$59.00Jul 17, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$10.00Jul 17, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$31.00Jul 17, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$100.47Jul 17, 08:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?$45.89Jul 16, 23:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $59.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 08:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.