Glistening-Legume
0x9e6b878394bfc9102fa4c529298f302688a79c48
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$25.42
Total PnL
$-146.48
Realised
$-3.01
Win rate
0%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.00
$15.00
- NO
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.42
$0.42
- YES
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
149 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?
124 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
98 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
66 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
33 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$9.21Jul 1, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Brazil (-1.5)$22.06Jun 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.14Jun 13, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$21.43Jun 12, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?$5.12Jun 12, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Brazil (-1.5)$15.14Jun 12, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$6.13Jun 12, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5$8.09Jun 12, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$35.17Jun 5, 14:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$19.05Jun 4, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?$12.19Jun 1, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.14May 27, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$4.13May 27, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$7.23May 26, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$5.17May 26, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$10.13May 26, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$13.33May 26, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$5.18May 23, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$5.16May 23, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?$27.78May 23, 06:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $6.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 22:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 12:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.