0xc5c34128a81f5e5c25058b97eb1a4b146e645ee5
0xc5c34128a81f5e5c25058b97eb1a4b146e645ee5
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$79.61
Total PnL
$24.04
Realised
$-1.90
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
47 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.00
$39.95
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
68 shares @ 8.8¢·now 6.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.66
$-1.33
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.63
$2.13
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
29 shares @ 19.8¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$-1.24
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 42.5¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.85
$-0.40
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.85
$-1.95
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
35 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.63
$-1.93
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.17
$-0.23
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.17
$0.13
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 37.3¢·now 42.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.15
$0.28
Recent activity
- SPLITWill Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 2, 10:10 UTC
- MERGEWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 2, 10:02 UTC
- SPLITWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 16:05 UTC
- MERGEPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 16:05 UTC
- SPLITPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 30, 00:03 UTC
- SPLITWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jun 29, 20:06 UTC
- MERGEFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$5.00Jun 29, 20:03 UTC
- MERGEPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 29, 20:03 UTC
- SPLITPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 29, 16:03 UTC
- SPLITWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jun 29, 12:04 UTC
- SPLITFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$5.00Jun 29, 08:04 UTC
- SPLITWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$5.00Jun 29, 04:03 UTC
- MERGEUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$10.00Jun 29, 02:08 UTC
- MERGEUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$10.00Jun 29, 02:07 UTC
- MERGEWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$5.00Jun 27, 04:05 UTC
- SPLITWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$5.00Jun 26, 08:05 UTC
- SPLITWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jun 26, 00:04 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$5.00Jun 26, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.10Jun 25, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.05Jun 25, 12:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $2.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 16:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 10:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.