Raw-Contributor
0xc624cccd414dc90ea329f06cf535fafa40d2ee24
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$16.2K
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$678.64
Win rate
67%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
1355 shares @ 82.8¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.2K
$111.61
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
1592 shares @ 71.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$1.2K
$86.91
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
1922 shares @ 44.2¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$874.38
$24.39
- YES
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
2247 shares @ 30.1¢·now 36.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$809.10
$133.46
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
1200 shares @ 56.4¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$701.95
$25.34
- YES
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
736 shares @ 87.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$687.91
$45.69
- YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
690 shares @ 79.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$562.14
$17.43
- YES
Will Fred Wellman be the MO-02 Democratic nominee?
544 shares @ 91.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$519.47
$19.47
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
616 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$471.58
$21.58
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
401 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$398.89
$-1.11
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.18Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$211.49Jul 28, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$108.28Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$100.00Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$55.74Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?$400.00Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?$200.00Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$150.00Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$108.13Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$760.84Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$513.95Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$102.49Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$182.68Jul 28, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$35.22Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $161.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 21:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.