Happy-Referendum
0xd64b97f1b9c02c3db68113ea88c0ce5d8887491a
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$54.43
Total PnL
$-46.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
25 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.11
$1.11
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$16.67
$15.67
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.11
$10.11
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.82
$0.82
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.61
$0.61
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.82
$-0.18
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.42
$-0.58
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 44.2¢·now 17.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.40
$-0.60
- NO
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$20.75May 8, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$20.72May 8, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuban regime falls in 2026?$20.00May 4, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$1.00May 2, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$10.47Apr 30, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?$1.04Apr 29, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?$1.04Apr 29, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3.45Apr 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?$1.07Apr 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?$1.04Apr 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.05Apr 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.05Apr 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.05Apr 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$1.05Apr 28, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 27?$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMOver $250k committed to the Printr public sale?$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on April 27?$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Apr 28, 16:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 11:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 15:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.