Disguised-Casualty
0xde8fc2229ed519fba61934a37937c24fc1c28fd8
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$29.6K
Total PnL
$3.5K
Realised
$166.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13150 shares @ 78.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.5K
$1.2K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
4100 shares @ 84.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$4.1K
$616.16
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
4170 shares @ 63.8¢·now 75.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$493.28
- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
3114 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$3.1K
$660.17
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
1800 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.8K
$241.20
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
2140 shares @ 72.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.7K
$160.50
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
2846 shares @ 62.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.7K
$-113.42
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1400 shares @ 81.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.2K
$105.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2269 shares @ 45.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.2K
$147.49
- NO
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
425 shares @ 28.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$99.93
$-19.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$81.00Jun 16, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$38.82Jun 16, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$2.4KJun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$4.41Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$2.78Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$41.39Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$10.99Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$59.88Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$65.92Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.24Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$59.33Jun 15, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$56.03Jun 15, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$52.19Jun 15, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$269.70Jun 15, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$3.3KJun 15, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$403.39Jun 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$399.68Jun 14, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.5KJun 14, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$864.36Jun 14, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$101.40Jun 14, 21:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $727.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 10:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.