0xe1529bde63370978a824a39b8c44635f615b586d
0xe1529bde63370978a824a39b8c44635f615b586d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-255.05
Realised
$-24.76
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
2625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
750 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
745 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
456 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
361 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10?
240 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.43
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
164 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-49.98
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
119 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 7?
95 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
90 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLClavicular sentenced to prison?$4.22Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.95Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$1.01Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$2.94Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$25.78Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLNo one announced as next James Bond?$16.10Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$1.26Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$65.70Jun 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$32.79Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$44.69Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$4.51Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLJames Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?$1.29Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$45.56Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.71Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$1.18Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$12.67Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$9.47Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6.61Jun 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWeed rescheduled by December 31?$2.02Jun 2, 07:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $8.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.