Vigilant-Railing
0xe5c215ac428d4143f9ebc817c9ac6e717a2e2ab0
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$223.4K
Total PnL
$-1.7M
Realised
$8.5K
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
265979 shares @ 40.8¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$113.0K
$4.5K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
80860 shares @ 75.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.2K
$12.1K
- NO
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
12394 shares @ 79.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.6K
$-239.10
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6338 shares @ 80.2¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.1K
$976.96
- NO
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
6150 shares @ 74.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$1.0K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5979 shares @ 80.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.5K
$687.56
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2472 shares @ 67.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$641.46
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1871 shares @ 87.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$138.06
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1933 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-29.00
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1723 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$159.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.15Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$42.35Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$49.65Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$49.32Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.16Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$46.98Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$319.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$37.79Jul 11, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$532.4K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 3, 23:10 UTC → Jul 11, 06:55 UTC
- BUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$200.0K@32¢Jul 9, 11:35 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$200.0K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
6 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$269.1K · 51% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $6.0K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.