Noted-Waffle
0xef8a1bfed89dfdfa3cba49aa0706d64c3dbc1b88
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$86.46
Total PnL
$-195.55
Realised
$0.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
51 shares @ 79.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.83
$5.07
- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
36 shares @ 77.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.44
$5.64
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.65
$0.65
- NO
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
8 shares @ 53.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-3.50
- YES
Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.58
$-0.42
- NO
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
655 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.70
- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Israel join the Board of Peace?
150 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- NO
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 15-21 be between 17,500,000 and 17,750,000?
142 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-12.26
- NO
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?
50 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.40Jul 11, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$2.34Jul 11, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$2.00Jul 9, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon anyone by July 31?$1.03Jul 9, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$5.48Jul 1, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMEpstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?$10.00Jul 1, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?$10.42Jul 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$5.00Jun 28, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?$3.45Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?$4.12Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$5.21Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?$6.25Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?$8.33Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?$18.95Jun 27, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLTulsi Gabbard out by March 31?$9.37Mar 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLTariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$3.30Feb 22, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?$5.28Feb 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother Canada election called by June 30?$6.01Feb 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?$3.65Feb 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELL100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$9.99Feb 21, 21:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 23:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.