Noted-Waffle
0xef8a1bfed89dfdfa3cba49aa0706d64c3dbc1b88
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$150.61
Total PnL
$-183.08
Realised
$0.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
51 shares @ 79.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.29
$3.53
- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
36 shares @ 77.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.44
$5.64
- NO
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?
19 shares @ 82.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$18.95
$3.24
- NO
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.33
$0.33
- NO
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.94
$0.63
- NO
Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?
8 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.33
$2.33
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.11
$5.11
- NO
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.34
$1.34
- NO
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.21
$0.21
- NO
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?
4 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.12
$0.45
Recent activity
- TRADESELLTulsi Gabbard out by March 31?$9.37Mar 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLTariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$3.30Feb 22, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?$5.28Feb 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother Canada election called by June 30?$6.01Feb 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?$3.65Feb 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELL100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$9.99Feb 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELLMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$14.80Feb 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIlhan Omar federally charged by March 31?$8.35Feb 21, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?$4.70Feb 21, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?$30.31Feb 21, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$40.00Feb 21, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$15.00Feb 21, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?$55.02Feb 21, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$12.00Feb 21, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIran strike on US military by February 28?$12.60Feb 21, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?$3.20Feb 20, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$7.00Feb 20, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$10.22Feb 20, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?$3.67Feb 18, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$5.00Feb 16, 17:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 1, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 14:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".