Satisfied-Effacement
0xf41c3be86073be4586decb2a71575835465eba2f
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$195.12
Total PnL
$16.02
Realised
$0.74
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
91 shares @ 35.2¢·now 46.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$41.78
$9.78
- NO
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
32 shares @ 64.8¢·now 70.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.77
$1.90
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
22 shares @ 71.9¢·now 77.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$17.25
$1.25
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$16.79
$0.79
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 63.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.97
$-0.03
- YES
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
13 shares @ 74.4¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.75
$0.75
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
13 shares @ 76.8¢·now 81.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$10.61
$0.61
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
15 shares @ 67.4¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.28
$0.01
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
14 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
13 shares @ 69.0¢·now 65.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$4.432h ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?$2.042h ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?$2.802h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$2.005h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$3.005h ago
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$4.675h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$11.085h ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$10.535h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$5.045h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$6.065h ago
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$1.036h ago
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$1.106h ago
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$2.046h ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by June 30?$1.696h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$7.0411h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$5.0511h ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by May 31?$5.6311h ago
- TRADESELLWill Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.2911h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Olly" or "Robinson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.9011h ago
- TRADESELLWill Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.0111h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 1d ago
- Last active
- 2h ago
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".