Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Probability
81¢
1h
+0.9pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$13.4K
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Heavy volume on this book — 8.1× turnover
$13.4k traded against $1.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2363h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2362.6h
- 13:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2363h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).