Flashy-Den
0xf8f2c114d378811f99044470c289a4cf52e996cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$4.99
Total PnL
$-523.44
Realised
$-93.70
Win rate
42%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
34 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.53
$-4.25
- YES
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 65.2¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.90
$-1.23
- YES
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.77
$-0.14
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1 shares @ 13.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.69
$0.55
- YES
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
3 shares @ 24.0¢·now 12.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.33
$-0.30
- YES
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 44.2¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.21
$-2.05
- YES
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
25 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.20
$-2.82
- YES
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?
13 shares @ 18.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$0.18
$-2.26
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
1 shares @ 29.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.14
$-0.26
- YES
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
9 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.04
$-1.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.79Jun 13, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother Elon baby by June 30?$1.84Jun 13, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?$2.84Jun 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?$2.80Jun 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.13Jun 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$4.07Jun 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$5.76Jun 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?$0.85Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?$1.46Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?$2.09Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? $1.98Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?$1.99Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?$2.86Jun 13, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$3.34Jun 13, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?$4.18Jun 13, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 24?$2.09Jun 13, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$5.24Jun 13, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$6.63Jun 13, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?$8.10Jun 13, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$5.72Jun 13, 09:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
50 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 09:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.