Large-Simplicity
0xf91a26c6db2ae08c86e972d64fb4fac409b721ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$282.73
Total PnL
$9.47
Realised
$12.75
Win rate
100%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 90.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$42.16
$0.97
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
30 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$29.95
$-0.05
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
26 shares @ 95.2¢·now 95.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$24.91
$-0.02
- NO
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
22 shares @ 93.5¢·now 97.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$21.81
$0.81
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
20 shares @ 94.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$18.54
$-0.46
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
13 shares @ 92.6¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.86
$0.03
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
12 shares @ 83.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$11.11
$1.11
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
10 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$10.40
$0.40
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$10.30
$0.30
- YES
ECB rate hike in 2026?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.95
$-0.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 18, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 18, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$5.00May 18, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$2.00May 18, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain snap election called in 2026?$5.04May 18, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.00May 18, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$1.06May 18, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYECB rate hike in 2026?$10.03May 18, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$1.00May 18, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$1.01May 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$1.01May 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$5.01May 18, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$5.01May 18, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$5.00May 18, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?$2.00May 18, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$5.00May 18, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain snap election called by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$1.00May 18, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?$1.00May 18, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?$1.00May 18, 06:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 05:05 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 08:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".