Young-Hurdler

• NO

  Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

  30 shares @ 79.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026

  $22.45

  $-0.89

• NO

  Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

  20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $16.20

  $1.40

• NO

  Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

  30 shares @ 10.1¢·now 23.3¢·exp Feb 28, 2026

  $6.99

  $3.96

• YES

  Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

  20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $6.00

  $-4.00

• NO

  Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

  10 shares @ 18.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026

  $4.85

  $3.05

• YES

  Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?

  600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027

  $3.30

  $2.10

• NO

  Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

  10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026

  $2.75

  $-0.05

• YES

  Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

  10 shares @ 17.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $1.05

  $-0.65

• NO

  Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?

  15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026

  $1.05

  $0.00

• YES

  Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

  11 shares @ 9.9¢·now 9.0¢·exp May 31, 2026

  $1.00

  $-0.09

• TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$10.85May 18, 07:21 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.10May 18, 06:27 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.13May 18, 06:12 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?$2.88May 18, 06:11 UTC
• TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$5.50May 18, 06:08 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?$2.07May 18, 06:04 UTC
• TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by July 31?$0.22May 17, 17:34 UTC
• TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by July 31?$0.45May 17, 17:31 UTC
• TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by July 31?$0.02May 16, 21:20 UTC
• TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by July 31?$0.38May 16, 21:17 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$23.53Apr 29, 20:50 UTC
• REDEEMWill Claude go down 6-8 times in April?$0.00Apr 29, 20:48 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.54Apr 18, 22:13 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.68Apr 18, 22:06 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.63Apr 18, 21:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.68Apr 18, 21:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.51Apr 18, 21:53 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?$1.70Apr 18, 21:43 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?$14.80Apr 18, 21:42 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?$3.95Apr 18, 21:42 UTC

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