Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Probability
45¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 45¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3776.2h
- 15:50SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 42¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).