Same-Diner
0xfd45a9bfaacc6b9cfafd813defe3c96b6f0bc05e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$171.61
Total PnL
$96.59
Realised
$7.96
Win rate
56%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27?
243 shares @ 0.5¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$60.69
$59.34
- YES
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Carolina Panthers in 2026-27?
47 shares @ 0.5¢·now 24.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.56
$11.31
- NO
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?
10 shares @ 59.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.53
$0.36
- YES
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27?
24 shares @ 0.3¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.00
$5.93
- NO
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$4.53
$0.99
- NO
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
5 shares @ 40.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$4.48
$2.48
- NO
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-03-08?
9 shares @ 0.6¢·now 49.5¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$4.45
$4.40
- YES
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
4 shares @ 91.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.39
$0.32
- NO
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?
4 shares @ 81.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.23
$0.70
- NO
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.11
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Brandon Aiyuk play for Los Angeles Rams in 2026-27?$0.01Jul 28, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle Sounders FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?$1.85Jul 16, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMSentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mohamed Diomande record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 270m?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Howard Lutnick be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 79000?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bradford City AFC vs. Plymouth Argyle FC end in a draw?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMNvidia Data Center Revenue above 70B in Q1?$0.00Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
36 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $0.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 12:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 05:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.