Worthwhile-Simplicity
0xfe8c8c7f7b92011552746647e3a4dc82f375ad4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$127.69
Total PnL
$-222.06
Realised
$4.85
Win rate
92%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
89 shares @ 13.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$67.00
$55.46
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
22 shares @ 8.9¢·now 73.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$16.29
$14.32
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?
11 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.55
$0.28
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
104 shares @ 21.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.33
$-14.54
- YES
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?
105 shares @ 62.7¢·now 5.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.67
$-60.14
- YES
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$-2.70
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.02
$1.16
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
24 shares @ 35.4¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.01
$-4.33
- NO
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.50
$-7.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$0.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?$1.80Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?$2.28Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: FC Zlín (-2.5)$7.55Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?$11.00Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$12.24Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lyon win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?$13.96Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$15.02Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Le Havre be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?$15.41Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$15.54Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$15.92Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$16.15Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?$16.55Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$16.58Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple reach $292 in April?$17.29Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$17.75Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Georgia win Eurovision 2026?$17.89Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe’s market cap be between $120B and $140B at market close on IPO day?$18.60Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?$18.77Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$19.64Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill William Moses win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$19.74Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $9.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 20:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 20:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.