Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
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5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
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TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi
Momentum observation
Momentum
2Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 27h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
78% 26.0pp
24h volume
$5.0M
Orrery Pulse0% current0-49% 7D range-46.0pp net move
67%50%33%17%0%
0%
Jun 10%-46.0pp from start
May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31Jun 1
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiTop read
24h Δ 26.0pp, 1h Δ 25.0pp · Turnover 63.3× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
24h Δ -15.0pp, 1h Δ -3.5pp · Turnover 7.3× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5UMA PENDING
High
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5UMA PENDING
High
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5UMA PENDING
High
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?UMA PENDING
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 71/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 66/91 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 76 | 70/80 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi probability up 26.0pp on $5.0M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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