MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 16h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Momentum observation
Momentum
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Top read
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.6× liquidity
2Open
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
24h Δ 10.7pp, 1h Δ 0.3pp · Turnover 1.8× liquidity
4Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 0.9× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosUMA PENDING
High
High
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandUMA PENDING
High
Will United States win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State ValkyriesUMA PENDING
High
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?UMA PENDING
High
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?UMA PENDING
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 92/85 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 67/87 84/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 75 | 60/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? probability up 15.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 7h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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