SportsExpires Oct 5, 2026

Will the Boston Red Sox win more than 85.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Probability

24¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3897h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 31.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3897.1h

    LOW
  • 18:55Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3897h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

Biggest hourly move: -10.5pp at 3d ago (to 24¢).

Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 3d ago · -10.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
  • 4d ago · -7.5pp → 24¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "O 85.5" if the Boston Red Sox win more than 85.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Boston Red Sox to record more than 85.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 85.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 5, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
mlb.comOfficial sports result
mlb.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.