Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-27.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3895h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 29.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3895.0h
- 20:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3895h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -28.0pp at 2d ago (to 35¢).
Show all 16 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "O 81.5" if the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Kansas City Royals to record more than 81.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 81.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (29.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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