Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of April?
Probability
99¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$3.9K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 2h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.9h
- 18:04SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h.
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Biggest hourly move: +47.6pp at 23:00 (to 99¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +47.6pp → 99¢
- 1d ago · -34.4pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -38.4pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · -34.5pp → 61¢
- 2d ago · -38.7pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -37.9pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · -42.5pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -38.4pp → 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.