Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of April?
Probability
79¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.5pp
24h Vol
$58.92
Liquidity
$520.20
Probability (last 7 days)
+29.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 24.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 122.7h
- 17:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 79¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 79¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 80¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 81¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 79¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 79¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 79¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 79¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 76¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 77¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 77¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 81¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 76¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 83¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.