Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Probability
17¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$248.70
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14773h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 28.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14772.8h
- 16:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14773h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 17¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 17¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 17¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 17¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 17¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.7pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.7pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.4pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.1pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.6pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.9pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.2pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 63¢+9.5pp
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 19¢-1.0pp
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $10.00
- 10¢-0.5pp
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 86¢+3.5pp
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 44¢-5.0pp
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 14¢+1.0pp
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.8M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 1¢-1.2pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+35.4pp
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arcium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".https://polymarket.com/event/betmoar-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (28.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).