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OtherExpires Mar 6, 2026

Spread: CA Barracas Central (-2.5)

Probability

49¢

1h

+4.3pp

24h

+11.8pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$8.07

Probability (last 7 days)

+17.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 12pp over 24h

    Now 49¢; +4.3pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 95.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 15:06Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 11.6pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 7.7pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 11.1pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 12.6pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 11.1pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 12.2pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 10.9pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 12.3pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 11.6pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 12.7pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 32.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.9pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.8pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.3pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for March 6 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CA Barracas Central" if CA Barracas Central win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CA Banfield". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligaprofesional.ar. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.ligaprofesional.ar/News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (95.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

3 wallets