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GeopoliticsExpires Apr 25, 2026

Nathan N`Goumou: Anytime Goalscorer

Probability

26¢

1h

+23.8pp

24h

-23.1pp

24h Vol

$316.12

Liquidity

$6.86

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 10:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:17
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 23pp over 24h

    Now 26¢; +23.8pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 51.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 14:17Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:17Price

    Probability down -23.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:30Resolve

    Market resolved 1h ago

    HIGH
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -45.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach, scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nathan N`Goumou is credited with a goal in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesligaNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (51.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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